A look at Maryland basketball's improved resume, the Big Ten standings and the Terps' two weeks ahead
Maryland (17-5, 7-4 Big Ten) has an opportunity to do some damage in February.
Over the past two weeks, perhaps no team in college basketball has improved its situation as much as Maryland.The Terps (17-5, 7-4 Big Ten) have rattled off four straight wins and have won six of their last seven games. Their three last wins, against Wisconsin and at Indiana and Illinois, have all been Quadrant One victories as well.
If the season ended after Wednesday's games, Maryland would have a double bye in the 15-team Big Ten Tournament. The Terps are in sole possession of fourth place in the Big Ten. No. 7 Michigan State (18-2, 9-0) is in first. No. 10 Purdue (16-5, 8-2) is 1.5 games back of the Spartans, and Michigan (15-5, 7-2) is right there as well. Maryland is three games back of Michigan State, four in the loss column.
The three teams a half-game behind Maryland with a 6-4 conference record are UCLA, No. 18 Illinois and No. 17 Wisconsin. The Terps have beaten all three teams and will not play either a second time during the regular season, meaning they would own the tiebreaker over each if it came down to it. No. 16 Oregon, which beat Maryland on Jan. 5 in Eugene, is 5-4 in the league.
Of the current top eight in the Big Ten, Maryland has played the toughest conference strength of schedule. Maryland has played the seventh-most difficult Big Ten schedule through its first 11 games. Michigan State has played the easiest, Purdue has played the third-easiest and Michigan has played the fourth-easiest conference slate thus far. The Spartans zero in the loss column may prove to be too much entering February, but their schedule will certainly get more rigorous.
Though Maryland is not ranked – it would be shocking if it is not next week – the metrics consider (and have considered) it a top-25 team for the majority of the season. Maryland is No. 18 in the NET, No. 20 at KenPom and in the ESPN Basketball Power Index, No. 15 at BartTorvik, No. 13 at EvanMiya and No. 11 at Haslametrics. The recent stretch has also elevated Maryland's resume-based metrics; the Terps are No. 28 in the KPI and No. 23 in both strength of record and wins above bubble. Pundits were speculating Maryland could be inching toward the bubble a couple weeks ago, but the Terps are clearly an NCAA Tournament team as of now.
Maryland is 4-4 in Quadrant One with five such games remaining. It is 3-1 in Quadrant Two with four such games remaining. Maryland is 2-0 in Quadrant Three and 8-0 in Quadrant Four. Rutgers' seven-point win over Northwestern moved it into the top 75 of the NET, meaning that – as of Thursday – the Terps have no games outside of the top two quadrants (opportunities for harmful losses) remaining.
After winning three big games in seven days, Maryland is now in the midst of an eight-day break before a February of opportunity arrives. Here's an early look at the Terps' next two weeks.
at Ohio State on Thursday, Feb. 6
KenPom rank: No. 28
NET rank: No. 28 (Quadrant One game)
KenPom spread: Ohio State -1
In the first meeting between the teams on Dec. 4, Maryland obliterated Ohio State, 83-59. The Terps led by 40 with 15:07 left in a game that was not as close as the final score indicated. Meeting in Columbus two months later, the rematch should surely be different. The Buckeyes are playing better basketball of late and are currently on a two-game win streak with victories at Purdue and against Iowa at home. They have two road games against Penn State and Illinois before welcoming the Terps to town. It could be an urgent game for Jake Diebler and company.
Rutgers on Sunday, Feb. 9
KenPom rank: No. 69
NET rank: No. 72 (Quadrant Two game)
KenPom spread: Maryland -12
Do not let the big number fool you. The Rutgers roster as a whole has not performed as expected, but starpower can win any game. Freshmen Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper will likely be two of the top five picks in this summer's NBA Draft, and Bailey just dropped 37 at Northwestern in a Quadrant One win. Maryland is rightfully favored to take care of business at home, but it will not take the Scarlet Knights lightly in a Super Bowl Sunday matinee.
at Nebraska on Thursday, Feb. 13
KenPom rank: No. 53
NET rank: No. 62 (Quadrant One game)
KenPom spread: Maryland -3
The first meeting between the Terps and the Cornhuskers was an interesting one. Maryland led 66-57 with 5:05 left, but Nebraska tied it at 66 with 1:02 left. The Terps ultimately closed out a 69-66 win but not without a scare. Brice Williams is one of the top scorers in the Big Ten, and Pinnacle Bank Arena is a difficult place to play. The Terps lost in overtime, 70-66, in Lincoln on Feb. 19, 2023, but won the previous road meeting against Nebraska, 90-74, on Feb. 18, 2022. Nebraska needs to improve its 1-6 Quadrant One record to revive its postseason resume.
Iowa on Sunday, Feb. 16
KenPom rank: No. 65
NET rank: No. 65 (Quadrant Two game)
KenPom spread: Maryland -12
It has been an interesting year for the Hawkeyes, who started 12-4 but are now 13-8 and 4-6 in the Big Ten. Though last season was a down one for Maryland, it still swept Iowa. Fran McCaffery's squad could be one of the most dangerous offensive teams at any point – the Hawkeyes are fifth nationally in effective field goal percentage, 12th in two-point percentage and 13th in three-point percentage – but Maryland needs to take care of business as big home favorites.
