Maryland basketball's bracketology, analytics and Big Ten Tournament double-bye prospects with one game left
The Maryland men's basketball team notched a massive win Wednesday night in Ann Arbor, beating No. 17 Michigan, 71-65. Where do the Terps stand in the key categories as the postseason nears?
The Maryland men's basketball team notched a massive win Wednesday night in Ann Arbor, beating No. 17 Michigan, 71-65.
The Terps have put themselves in a position to clinch a double bye in the Big Ten with a home win over Northwestern in the regular-season finale. A win would put the Terps as high as No. 2 and as low as No. 4.
Maryland's win over the Wolverines allowed Michigan State to secure a share of the Big Ten title. If the Spartans beat Iowa on Thursday, they will win it outright. They can do Maryland a favor by beating Michigan in their remaining matchup The current Big Ten standings and tiebreakers:
Michigan State 15-3
Michigan 14-5
Maryland 13-6
Purdue 13-6
Wisconsin 13-6
1. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular season.
- a. When comparing records against the tied teams, teams will be seeded based on winning percentage head-to-head among the group, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0 or 0-0). If all teams among the group are separated based on winning percentage, all ties are broken. Ties shall be considered separated when a team(s) emerges from the top, middle or bottom of the group and is awarded a seed(s).
- b. Once a seed is awarded, all remaining tied teams shall restart the tiebreak process at the first criteria (e.g. if there is a four-team tie, one team is 4-0, another is 3-1 and the last two are 2-2 among the group, the two teams that are 2-2 move to step a (head-to-head) and the teams that are 4-0 and 3-1 assume the next two available highest seeds).
- a. When arriving at another pair of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to their own tiebreaking procedures), rather than the performance against the individual tied teams.
- b. When comparing records against a single team or group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0 or 0-0).
4. Highest NET ranking of the teams. NET rankings that are released on the last Friday of the regular season will be utilized.
Purdue closes the regular season at Illinois on Friday. Wisconsin closes the regular season against Penn State at home on Saturday. Michigan State and Michigan close the season against each other in East Lansing on Sunday.
If Michigan defeats Michigan State and Maryland, Purdue and Wisconsin all finish 14-6, Maryland would have the three-way tiebreaker over both Wisconsin and Purdue. The group is all 1-1 against each other, and the next tiebreaker would be comparing the team's record against the team occupying the highest position in the standings. All three teams went 0-1 against Michigan State, so the next team to look at would be Michigan. Maryland went 1-0 against Michigan, Purdue went 1-1 against Michigan and Wisconsin went 0-1 against Michigan. In this scenario, Maryland would be the No. 3 seed, Purdue the No. 4 and Wisconsin the No. 5.
If Michigan State defeats Michigan and Maryland, Michigan, Purdue and Wisconsin all finish 14-6, Maryland would own the four-way tiebreaker over the remaining teams. The Terps would be 2-1 against the quartet, the best round-robin record, and earn the No. 2 seed. The other three teams would then have to enter more complicated tiebreakers, but Maryland would ultimately have the upper hand over any of them in this situation.
If Purdue, Maryland and Michigan were in a three-way tie, Maryland would be second in the group with the best round-robin record. If Maryland, Michigan and Wisconsin were in a three-way tie, Maryland would be first in the group because of its round-robin record.
In a two-way tie with Michigan or Wisconsin, Maryland would own the head-to-head tiebreaker. If Maryland were in a two-way tie with Purdue, the Boilermakers would own the head-to-head tiebreaker; if Michigan beats Michigan State,
Wisconsin loses to Penn State and Purdue beats Illinois, this could be a scenario that drops Maryland to the No. 4 seed.
Again, all the above scenarios rely on a Maryland home win over Northwestern. Long story short, a win guarantees no worse than a fourth seed and a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament.
Maryland's resume is strong. The Terps added a seventh Quadrant 1 win Wednesday night. Maryland's seven Quad 1 wins are tied with nine other teams for 10th most in the country. Maryland is one of only 11 teams in college basketball to have at least seven Quad 1 wins and a winning record in the first quadrant. The Terps finish the regular season with a Quadrant 2 game against Northwestern. They are 7-6 in Quad 1 and 5-1 in Quad 2.
Maryland is 12th in the NET, 13th at KenPom, 13th in the ESPN Basketball Power Index and 15th at BartTorvik. The Terps' resume metrics have improved of late; they rank 22th in KPI, 16th in strength of record and 17th in wins above bubble.
A lot of bracketologists will not update projections until Friday morning, but the win over Michigan has the Terps trending toward a No. 5 seed or better in the NCAA Tournament.
